Monday, September 25, 2006
With indices overbought and near extreme resistance levels it is getting too late to buy, bar for a few specific issues. Likewise, now that we are entering the last week of the month, fund window dressing (an illegal, but oft performed activity) should make life difficult for the shorts. As we move into October, the chances for a larger correction increase. The semiconductors have already likely seen their top as can be seen in the weekly view of the SMH below. Note the inability of this ETF to make it over resistance at $34 over the past four weeks. Each attempt has been met with stiff selling. Why is this index important? If you recall, it led the way up in this oversold rally that is now showing signs of aging. There remains potential for the S&P to test its highs this week. We will be surprised, but not completely shocked, if the QQQQ is able to also test its highs. We would use late week strength to look for short positions. Finally, for those feeling a twitch of concern at our market outlook, consider that after a corrective retracement, the probabilities for a strong late year rally are very good.