Wednesday, November 30, 2005
Monday, November 28, 2005
Wednesday, November 23, 2005
Tuesday, November 22, 2005
Sunday, November 20, 2005
Again, during the 1990-2000 bull market, the first half of that period was characterized by individuals selling their stocks. It was only during the 1995-2000 period in which individuals were net buyers of stocks.
Are you frustrated with lack of performance in your portfolio over the past year? Cheer up, price and volume are telling us that the future is good. More importantly, they are telling us that right here, right now is just the beginning of the next bull market move. Smart money understands this just like they did in 1982 and again in 1995. The average consumer misses the best opportunities and either comes to the party late or doesn't come at all. Here is why the party is just getting started: After two years of a grueling sideways trading range, the NASDAQ 100 has broken out:
After two years of a grueling sideways trading range, the S&P 500 has broken out:
If history repeats itself once again, then those who recognize this opportunity while it's still in its youth will be in the minority. Don't be in the crowd of sheep who will miss this screaming buy signal.
Thursday, November 17, 2005
Wednesday, November 16, 2005
There is little doubt that the market is going to pull back here. We believe that the best position to take during this pullback is a defensive one. There are possibly some positions that are shortable, but risk of surprise generally occurs in the direction of the trend. Since the trend is up, risk on the short side is not manageable for all but the most nimble of traders. After market shocks might be the biggest reason for avoiding short positions at this point.
We may suffer some stop outs as a result of yesterday's hard reversal. Respect the pullback and honor stops here. Buying opportunities are sure to arise out of this pullback, but the next few days are the time to preserve your trading account, not hold and hope.
Tuesday, November 15, 2005
Monday, November 14, 2005
Thursday, November 10, 2005
Wednesday, November 09, 2005
Tuesday, November 08, 2005
Monday, November 07, 2005
Thursday, November 03, 2005
It broke downtrend resistance at $39 on heavy volume and closed just below the all-important $39.50. We mentioned these two numbers in yesterday’s report. Moving over $39 should be considered a breakout and bears have their backs against the wall here as money that has been sidelined for months is starting to come in. Investors are starting to get worried that they are going to miss a 4th quarter rally, as well they should.
The real test is yet to come however. $39.50 represents resistance drawn from October 2004’s peak (see weekly chart above). In fact, this basic level has represented overhead supply (resistance) since January of 2004. A strong break above $39.50 would put us into a new bullish era that could last for a couple of years. More importantly, it would take us out of the grueling trading range that for the past year and a half has made it very difficult to take money out of the market and that has led to periods of trading account draw downs. A sustained move over $39.50 would be significant indeed.
What has been holding back a tech break out? The weak semiconductor sector has. Take a look at the SMH chart below and notice the very strong bounce off its long term uptrend. This sector is ready to rally in the 4th quarter and we should see some nice gains to the upside starting from this move.