Securities Research Services

Friday, August 25, 2006

Slow and Boring Trading with Slightly Negative Bias

On the long list of indices we tract, relative strength readings yesterday were all negative, save for the SOXX, semiconductor index. We would read this as more of an anomaly than an indication that the semis are about to show leadership. No, this market is set to drift, with what looks to be a slightly negative bias, through next week. Unfortunately this lazy end-of-summer trading is not likely to lead to much excitement until after Labor Day. We don't recommend getting overly aggressive since what we are seeing now is more representative of small traders trading amongst themselves than it is of real supply and demand. Yesterday, once again, program trading caused a slight rally in the last 30 minutes of trading. One respected analyst indicates that this "propping up" of the market into the close is having only the effect of temporarily staving off the inevitable.

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