Tuesday, August 29, 2006
Tech indices appear to want to continue drifting higher as we move closer to the end of the month buying window. The blue chips, however, found serious resistance overhead as they tried to break out yesterday and once again the S&P and Dow sold off into the close; a bearish sign. The problems with this rally are pretty much the same problem all recent rallies have had lately. Volume is poor, breadth is poor, and there has been a disconnect between the indices. Blue chips have moved way out in front and tech, while making a decent catch-up move, continues to lag. Overall the technical picture isn't terrible, and is for the most part neutral except for a couple of reasons. First, while we are seeing some areas of tech make strong moves, reliable breakouts are not setting up in the sector. We are also seeing more reliable short set ups than reliable long set ups. Most significant, however, is the potential for the bond market to sell off later this week. Technically bonds are ripe for a sell off, which would likely put a nail in the coffin on the bullish case for stocks. Stocks can still improve and rally, but time is on the side of the bears here. The longer the bulls wait to put their technical pieces together the weaker their case becomes.