Friday, August 04, 2006
The market rallied back to resistance yesterday on a bet that today's jobs data will be weak enough to render the Fed with no alternative but to stop their rate hikes during next week's meeting. The problem is, market leading indices, including the QQQQ and SMH, were pulled along for the rally as opposed to having led the way. Accumulation indicators on these two indices have stayed flat even as the price has moved higher, indicating that smart money has not participated in the rally. There is a potential that the jobs data will propel indices higher today, perhaps even pushing them over resistance. We hope that this will not occur however. Capitulation, which is needed to mark a clear market bottom, is strikingly absent and any rally higher from current levels will be performed on very little buying fuel setting the market up for another extreme wave lower. It would be much better if indices turned back here and worked on building a base of support before they rally above downtrend resistance. We can't tell the market to do what we want it to do though so for today, we will wait and see what develops after the jobs report to be delivered before the market opens.