Securities Research Services

Thursday, March 08, 2007

Rally Sputters

Hopeful bulls, whether they understand it or not, had their hopes pinned on the all-elusive follow through day. Elusive because follow through is rare in a counter trend rally. The fact that the NASDAQ couldn't stage any strength at all yesterday and that the S&P and Dow both tailed off into the closing hour shows that bulls just don't have what it takes to march this market right back up the hill the way they would like to.

As we pointed out the other day, oil ships and markets both take a long time to make a turn when momentum is behind them. This market has momentum to the downside for at least one more leg lower.

Now, keep in mind that it is important to set your expectations on reasonable ground. Options expire next week and there continues to be a large amount of put buyers out there betting on more downside. The crowd is rarely right and options sellers have a strong record of collecting fees on options that expire worthless. Look for a bumpy ride over the next week, but don't expect the market to make much real progress until options are out of the way. We certainly could see the other shoe drop before next Friday, but that would be an aberration from the norm if it does happen.

To all our female readers: Happy International Women's Day!

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

today we have good chance to see dow closing under 12200. regard,wez.