A slight weakening in Hurricane Rita was enough to deliver a pretty good bounce in the late afternoon yesterday. We had a quick spike in the morning when breadth was almost 3 to 1 negative, but that slowly faded until news of the downgrade in Hurricane Rita hit. Crude oil pulled back as traders faded the breakout to new highs and stocks bounced as the winds slowed from 170 mph to a slight breeze of just 150 mph or so. This market is all about trying to guess how well we have priced in the inevitable damage. Anyone who thinks the market is an accurate discounting mechanism is probably teaching college finance somewhere. The rest of us know that this market is clueless about the fallout of Hurricane Rita, and it is acting like it, by bouncing around randomly. Today we should see more of the same. This is just not a market we want to get in front of. We hope negativity returns today so that a serious relief rally can ensue next week. If optimists bet on the relief rally today however, it could set us up for disappointment next week. So in the bizzaro world of trading, negative today is positive next week, positive today is negative next week. This is one confused market and what works under "normal" conditions is just not working right now.