Securities Research Services

Tuesday, September 13, 2005

Market May Trade Flat for a Couple Days

Scans were thin today, but that’s to be expected now that the market has some resistance to deal with along with triple witching options day on Friday to contend with. We will most certainly get some bumps in the road along the way, but the technical condition is looking fairly bright here. Here’s some interesting analyst comments from MarketWatch: Money management and research firm Bridgewater Associates thinks stocks "look cheap," not just in the U.S. but globally. The firm said its research suggests earnings yields are currently about 2% higher than bond yields. In addition, the stock markets of developed countries are on a whole 20% below their pre-bubble peaks, while unadjusted earnings are 35% higher and bond yields are 2% lower. "The current pricing for global stocks is as pessimistic as it has been in a generation," Bridgewater said in a recent note to clients. "While global equity prices have risen in recent years, they have paled in comparison to the increase in earnings and have not reflected the drop in bond yields." That helps explain why the stock market seems to get a boost whenever the 10-year Treasury yield approaches 4% -- stocks are just too cheap to ignore. The resulting asset shift into stocks has led to short-term run-ups in bond yields, like the rise seen over the last week, but as we've seen over time, these gains have proved relatively short lived.And the following declines are starting to go lower and lower, which should, all things being equal, make stocks look cheaper and cheaper.

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