Securities Research Services

Thursday, September 18, 2008

Tale of Two Trades

After assessing the risk we offered clients two long side trades earlier this week. We reasoned that the market was very likely to be defended in the current area and as such dips would be buying opportunities, not reasons to panic.

As always, this did not mean throwing caution to the wind, but rather carefully choosing entry points and establishing stops to get us out in case something went wrong.

One trade worked and the other one failed.

This brings us to an important reality of the market. No one is ever right 100% of the time. In fact, no one is ever right even 80% of the time.

The good news is that with careful and thoughtful risk management procedures in place it is possible to be right only 50% of the time and still enjoy huge profits.

Let's take a look at this week's trades and see why:


OCR failed at its trend and we quickly stopped out.


BKE rallied sharply higher and remains open. Profits on the BKE trade have erased the loss on the OCR trade and then some giving us a net gain on the week and the trade is not even over yet.

Our primary concern is risk management. We have found that over time focus on limiting risk allows profits to take care of themselves.


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