
The intermediate and long term trend is down, so probabilities favor a downside breakdown. Upside breakouts should be looked at suspiciously until the price holds for more than an hour or two. An early break higher may get faded. A breakdown could also get faded, but the likelihood is much lower due to the fact the market is in a downtrend.

The current outlook now depends on the direction the continuation triangle pattern breaks. If it breaks to the upside, then we expect prices to rally into the falling 50-week average for a high probability shorting opportunity. If prices break lower, prices may retest January lows for a high probability buying opportunity.
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