Securities Research Services

Thursday, August 02, 2007

Oversold Condition Likely to Get Some Relief

Yesterday's late day bounce was impressive. The SPY held support at its 200-day average and volume on the intraday reversal was heavy.

The question is, is it enough? V-bottom reversals are rare and it is highly unlikely that prices will now climb right back up the hill from whence they started. A recovery from last week's onslaught is certainly possible, but probabilities favor at least another test of the lows.

Today should be a positive as this oversold market needs a chance to catch back up with its falling 20-day averages. We won't have any real answers about this market until we see how it behaves when it retests the lows after the coming bounce.

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