Securities Research Services

Friday, July 14, 2006

Ignore Any Bounces, This Slide Has More Ways to Go

Once again options traders are overly bearish. Yesterday's instability in the Middle East forced the market lower despite the overly bearish posture amongst the masses. Nevertheless, we should see a bit of a floor today, if only a temporary one. The market is confirming the 39-week cycle low, which is projected to land toward the end of the month. It is doubtful that we will see a meaningful reversal until it lands. Any strength in the interim should be aggressively shorted. The strange thing about yesterday's market was the sudden disconnect between oil stocks and the price of oil. With oil soaring past $78 overnight though we should see strength return to this sector today.

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