Significant Strength in Gold and Oil

An inverted yeild curve on long term bond rates signals a recession down the road. As we mentioned the other day, it is likely that the Fed is engineering just such a recession in order to put a cap on rising commodities prices as well as let some air out of the US real estate bubble. A recession is likely a year or so off however and this week the yeild curve on bond rates moved up to test the downtrend line. A break above this line will give a boost to the stock market. A rejection will likewise cause the market to sell off somewhat significantly here. As we move into the end of the month of March the market is either betting on a yeild breakout or the monthly mark ups are masking the market's true intent. Likely we are seeing a bit of both play out here meaning that the going in the broader market could remain rocky over the next week or two. Meanwhile, significant opportunities are cropping up in the commodities markets as well as in some areas of tech.